The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday said Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.51per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, marking two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.
According to NBS, the Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87 per cent growth rate recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11 per cent recorded in Q4 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery.
The report said: “Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -13.93 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, reflecting a generally slower pace of economic activities at the start of the year.
“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40,014,482.74 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N35,647,406.08 million, indicating a year on year nominal growth rate of 12.25 per cent.
“The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to 12.01% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020 as well as the 10.07 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter.”
The Oil Sector
In the first quarter of 2021, average daily oil production stood at 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.35mbpd lower than the average daily production of 2.07mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 but higher than the production volume of 1.56mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Figure 2: Crude Oil Output (MBPD)
The oil sector recorded real GDP growth rate of -2.21 per cent (year-on-year) in Q1 2021 indicating a decrease of -7.27 per cent points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 (5.06per cent).
Compared to Q4 2020 which recorded -19.76 per cent growth rate, growth in Q1 2021 was higher by 17.55 per cent points. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 35.65% in Q1 2021.
In terms of contribution to aggregate GDP, the Oil sector accounted for 9.25 per cent of aggregate real GDP in Q1 2021, slightly lower than 9.5 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 but higher than in the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87per cent.
The Non-Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 0.79per cent in real terms in Q1 2021, which was -0.75per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.89per cent points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector while other drivers include Agriculture (Crop Production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate; Construction and Human Health & Social Services.
In real terms, the Non-oil sector accounted for 90.75% of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50per cent but lower than 94.13per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.