Following predictions of a possible
disintegration of Nigeria by 2015 by the United
States and some analysts, former Senate
President, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, has said should
it comes to pass, the whole Africa continent
and the entire black race would be in trouble.
He then warned those calling for the break-up
of the country to desist from such, saying the
consequence of any break up of Nigeria would
be too much on other African countries.
Ayu stated this at the Fifth Convocation Lecture
of the Adekunle Ajasin Univesity, Akungba
Akoko (AAUA), Ondo State, on Wednesday as
part of a week-long convocation ceremony of
In the lecture titled : “The Break-up of Nigeria:
Myths, Realities, and Implications,” the former
Minister of Agriculture recalled that there were
many amalgamations of different communities
before 1914 that British officially amalgamated
the country from former Southern and
Northern Protectorates, saying,” Never did the
British arrive and find two coherent and distinct
political entities known as Northern and
“What they found were numerous political
entities. Even within single ethnic groups, e.g.
the Yorubas and the Igbos, there were several
polities and entities antagonistic to each other,
which the British pulled together. It is these
disparate groups that were reconstituted into
Northern and Southern protectorates”.
While condemning the call for the break of the
country by some political elements, Ayu said
there is a need for those people to be
cautioned so as not to put the nation in flames
as a result of their political bitterness .
He said : “It is accepted worldwide that the
nation is greater than any of its individual
citizens. No matter how highly placed we are or
where we come from, it is our nation that has
offered us an opportunity to attain greatness.
Not only must we do nothing to destroy that
nation, we must contain our overzealous
supporters against stoking the flames for its destruction.”
The Guest Lecturer pointed out that should
Nigeria disintegrate, “it will be as peeling an
onion, layer after layer. It will not just be one
single division of North and South. Many de-
amalgamations will take place, with numerous
indeterminate boundaries and conflicts. The
resultant wars will generate several rivers of
“Contrary to the illusion of faster growth and
development, these conflicts and wars will lead
to massive economic destruction and a
throwback to pre-colonial times. The new
miniature nations will take decades, if not
centuries, to reach our current level of
development. Those in doubt should look in the
“The current promise of Nigeria emerging as a
major economic player after 2050 will be no
more. It is projected that by 2050, Nigeria’s
population will be the third largest in the
world, and its economy among the top ten. All
this will be lost.
“The break up will generate a huge refugee
nightmare requiring large quantities of food,
shelter, and medical supplies.This mass
migration will destabilize the whole of the West
African sub-region and beyond.
“The world media, especially television, will be
happy to capture and present these pathetic
images to the world. It will be a big blow to the
black world. Many Africans and Africans in the
diaspora will be psychologically traumatised.
“Overall, it will be a world of impoverished
mini states, tearing at each other, pouring out
desperate peoples, and by so doing, humiliating
the whole of the black race”.
In his opening remarks, the Vice Chancellor of
the university, Prof. Femi Mimiko expressed
appreciation to Ayu for agreeing to deliver the
lecture, saying he was one of the most equipped
to speak on the topic.
Following predictions of a possible